Saturday, April 30, 2011

Trading Plan: Holding a long postion above current week opening price till weekly close



Trading Plan: Waiting for the S&P to reach a price level before entering long



Step one: Identify prior days key levels
Step two: if the distance to the next support area is further away a counter trend is possible
Step three: enter SHORT on a donchian channel break and a rally above the prior 10 min bar down to the support area.
Step four: See if you can reverse at the support area and go long again

Week 17 Stocks LONG, Bonds LONG, Euro LONG, Crude Oil Sideways

FDAX:
  • Monday: Failed Correction to prior close (and only a minor trend till close)
  • Tuesday: Correction to prior close followed by a trend till at least 2.30 pm
  • Wednesday: Trend till at least 2.30 pm
  • Thursday: Correction to prior close followed by a trend till at least 2.30 pm
  • Friday: Correction to prior close followed by a trend till at least 2.30 pm


Bund:
  • Monday: Correction to prior close followed by a trend till at least 11.30 am
  • Tuesday: Correction to prior close followed by a trend till at least 11.30 am
  • Wednesday: no trade
  • Thursday: Oops Setup from tuesdays low till above tuesdays high
  • Friday: Correction to prior close followed by a trend till at least 11.30 am

Euro:
  • Monday: Correction to prior close
  • Tuesday: Trend till close
  • Wednesday: Trend till close
  • Thursday: Failed Correction to prior close, Trend till close
  • Friday: Correction to prior close


Nasdaq:
  • Monday: Correction to prior closeand trend till mondays opening price
  • Tuesday: Trend till 2400
  • Wednesday: Correction to prior close followed a Trend till at least 2.30 pm
  • Thursday: Correction to prior close
  • Friday: Trend till at least 2.30 pm


Crude Oil:
  • Monday: Correction to prior close
  • Tuesday: Correction to prior close
  • Wednesday: Oops Setup from Tuesdays low to Mondays Opening Price
  • Thursday: Trend till mondays high
  • Friday: Correction to prior close







Friday, April 29, 2011

29th April Friday





Stock Market Indices:
Strategy for trading on fridays is to enter low risk trend trades after 3.00 am, 4.00 am, 6.20 am, 8.30 am (on news days), 9.00 am, 10.00 am, 11.00 am

My plan is to make a short trade
from prior close down to thursdays high (7485) and
then to go long till thursdays high (over 7515)
  • 3.11 am SHORT
  • 4.55 am LONG
  • 6.05 am LONG
  • 8.39 am SHORT
after 9:30 am: Looking forward to buy nasdaq at 2402 up to prior swing high at 2409
  • 9.30 am LONG (nasdaq)
  • 9.21 am LONG (fdax)
Currency Trades: Plan is to trade the opening move around 8-9 am and then another trade after 9.30 am.
First short down and then long.
  • 4.00 am LONG (swiss franc)
  • 4.20 am LONG
  • 5.20 am SHORT (pound)
  • 8.08 am SHORT (canadian dollar)
  • 10.06 am LONG
  • 11.05 pm SHORT
Commodities (mainly Crude Oil) Trades: Plan is to trade the opening move around 8-9 am and then another trade after 10.30 am. Goal is to only make a trade after the short opening move down to prior close when price either reached 113.40 or 111.69.
  • 3.00 am SHORT
  • 4.51 am LONG
  • 7.11 am LONG
  • 8.50 am SHORT
  • 11.30 am LONG

    Thursday, April 28, 2011

    28th April Thursday






    Stock Market Indices:
    Strategy for trading on thursday is to enter low risk trend trades after 3.00 am, 4.00 am, 5.00 am, 8.00 am, 9.00 am, 10.00 am, 11 am, 1 pm

    Plan is to go first short from prior day high (74
    79) down possible buy areas: 7456 (swing high), 7426 (50%), going long from there the price should go up to at least the opening price or above prior day high. Goal is to get at least 20 points from the down move.
    • 2.33 am SHORT
    • 3.46 am SHORT
    • 5.30 am SHORT
    after 9:30: Plan is to enter a long setup after 9.30 am as the fdax approaches the opening minute with higher highs and higher lows, Goal is to get at least 10 points from the up move. Nasdaq looks not as strong so maybe after 10.00 am a sell is possible.
    • 9.30 am LONG (fdax)
    • 10.17 am SHORT (nasdaq)
    • 10.46 am LONG (nasdaq)
    • 11.37 am SHORT (nasdaq)
    • 1.44 pm LONG (nasdaq)
    Currency Trades: Plan is to trade the opening move around 8-9 am and then another trade after 9.30 am
    • 2.36 am SHORT (pound)
    • 3.08 am SHORT (pound)
    • 6.10 am SHORT
    • 9.30 am LONG
    Commodities (mainly Crude Oil) Trades: Plan is to trade the opening move around 8-9 am and then another trade after 10.30 am. Goal is to go long after 10 am and hold the position till prior day high and then like yesterday maybe reverse for another short trade.
    • 4.27 am SHORT
    • 5.50 am LONG (bund)
    • 9.31 am LONG
    • 10.30 am LONG (natural gas)
    • 10.36 am LONG
    • 11.36 am SHORT
    • 1.49 pm LONG

      Wednesday, April 27, 2011

      27th April Wednesday







      Stock Market Indices:
      Strategy for trading on wednesday is to enter low risk trend trades after 3.00 am, 3.30 am, 4.00 am, 5.00 am, 8.00 am, 9.00 am and 10.30 am.

      Plan is to trade a long trend continuation so entry either below prior day close, swing low (7374) or at 50% level (7345)
      • 3.17 am SHORT
      • 4.32 am LONG
      • 8.30 am LONG
      after 9.30 am: Plan is to watch the nasdaq go down since S&P already reached its prior day high. Nasdaq long might be possible at 2391 or 2387 or after 12.30 pm fed news. Goal: Get a swing long position below 2391
      • 9.47 am LONG (nasdaq)
      • 10.01 am SHORT (fdax & nasdaq)
      • 11.29 am LONG (fdax)
      • 12.37 pm LONG (nasdaq)
      • 2.52 pm LONG
      Currency (mainly euro) Trades : Plan is to trade the opening move around 8-9 am and then another trade after 10.30 am. Goal get a swing long postion beloww 1.4630
      • 2.30 am SHORT (pound)
      • 4.04 am LONG
      • 4.30 am LONG (pound)
      • 8.40 am LONG (pound)
      • 9.00 am LONG
      • 10.10 am SHORT
      • 12.34 pm LONG
      Commodities (mainly Crude Oil) Trades: Plan is to trade the opening move around 8-9 am and then another trade after 10.30 am. Goal get a swing long postion below 111.53 $
      • 2.00 am SHORT
      • 4.28 am LONG
      • 7.40 am SHORT
      • 9.00 am LONG
      • 9.56 am SHORT
      • 10.59 am LONG
      • 1.47 pm LONG

      Tuesday, April 26, 2011

      26th April Tuesday





      Stock Market Indices:
      Strategy for trading on tuesdays is to enter low risk trend trades after 3.00 am, 4.00 am, 6.00 am, 9.00 am, 10.00 am

      Plan is to go long at a good price (ideally at or below prior days low or in the 7200 - 7262 area)
      • 3.00 am LONG
      • 3.15 am SHORT
      • 3.26 am LONG
      • 6.11 am SHORT
      • 7.35 am LONG
      after 9:30 am: Plan is to go long after 10.00 am after nasdaq or S&P bounced off prior days high.
      • 9.30 am SHORT (nasdaq)
      • 10.18 am LONG (fdax)
      • 10.20 am LONG (nasdaq)
      • 12.20 pm SHORT (nasdaq)
      Currency Trades (mainly EUR/USD) : Plan is to trade the opening move around 8-9 am and then another trade after 9.30 am
      • 2.25 am LONG
      • 3.26 am LONG
      • 5.27 am SHORT (pound)
      • 8.07 am LONG
      • 10.17 am LONG
      Commodities (mainly Crude Oil) Trades: Plan is to trade the opening move around 8-9 am and then another trade after 10.30 am
      • 3.12 am LONG
      • 6.15 am SHORT
      • 7.38 am LONG
      • 8.17 am LONG
      • 9.05 am SHORT
      • 10.16 am LONG
      • 11.05 am SHORT

        Monday, April 25, 2011

        25th April Monday






        Stock Market Indices:
        Strategy for trading on mondays is to enter low risk trend trades after 2.05 am, 3.00 am, 3.30 am, 4.30 am, 5.00 am, 6.00 am, 8.30 am, 9.30 am, 10.20 am, 3 pm

        after 3 am: Plan is to first trade long till fridays high
        • 3.30 am LONG
        • 7.56 am SHORT
        after 9:30 am: Plan is to go short the nasdaq like last monday.
        • 9.38 am SHORT (nasdaq)
        • 10.06 am SHORT (nasdaq)
        • 12.57 pm LONG (nasdaq)
        Currency Trades: Plan is to trade the opening move around 8-9 am and then another trade after 9.30 am or 11.00 am
        • 2.14 am LONG
        • 9.00 am LONG
        • 9.37 am SHORT
        Commodities (mainly crude oil): Plan is to trade the opening move around 8-9 am and then another trade after 10.30 am
        • 4.08 am SHORT
        • 7.36 am SHORT (gold)
        • 8.10 am LONG
        • 9.24 am SHORT
        • 11.00 am LONG
        • 1.31 pm LONG

          Sunday, April 24, 2011

          Trading Plan: At the low of the day buy S1 on Hourly Pivots



          Trading Plan: Combining Momentum Entries and Hourly Pivots







          Sometimes its not clear if price breaks above and below a pivot
          usually I dont trade long if the pivot is not above the last pivot, however there can be setups (like on the crude oil screenshot) where it makes sense to enter using the traditional method (going long above the 2nd cluster of green bars.

          So there are 7 possible entries I use:
          • In a trend or in the opening hour, bounce of the pivot line or R1 / S1
          • On a bounce of the S1 or S2 at the low of the day
          • Break of the pivot line together with a trendline break
          • Break above the bars that are green (if there has been within 10 min ago a series of green bars that was higher than the current green bar = tpyical start of a trend = up move, down move and now a lower entry price)
          • Stop Buy Order above a Blue Volume Spread Analysis Bar (that is lower than a series of green momentum bars)
          • Break below the bars that are red (if there has been within 10 min ago a series of red bars that was lower than the current red bar = tpyical start of a trend = down move, up move and now a higher entry price)
          • Stop Sell Order below an Orange Volume Spread Analysis Bar (that is higher than a series of red momentum bars)
          And 5 possible exits:
          • Counter Signal (entry in other direction)
          • Long Trade Trailstop below the bar that reached R1, 50% R12, R2
          • Short Trade Trailstop above the bar that reached S1, 50% S12, S2
          • Long Trade Trailstop below red VSA bar above R2
          • Short Trade Trailstop above blue VSA bar below S2


          Trading Plan: Opening Move

          Trades after 9.30 am either the FDAX or the Nasdaq provide
          a better entry:

          In the following screenshots, nasdaq had just a scalping chance (bounce of R1)
          whereas the fdax had a chance for a trend (trailing stop below the swing lows instead
          of exiting at the targets):




          Trades after 3 am:









          Instead of entering at the break of the pivot point its much more profitable to enter at a reaction on the R1 or S1 line after 3 am.