30th September Thursday

FDAX:
Strategy for trading on thursday is to enter low risk trend trades after 3.15 am, 5.30 am, 6.20 am (bearish), 8.30 am, 9.45 am, 10.45 am and after 2.30 pm. Also expecting to catch some points from the 2.45 am move

after 3 am : Prior Day Closed on a Swing low so looking for short continuation. Short below 6204 or Reversal at 6242 (pause at prior day low 6230), Long above 6254 or Reversal at 6166 or on low risk entry signal before the breakout

• 2.23 am long
• 3.34 am LONG
• 5.27 am LONG
• 6.16 am SHORT
• 8.30 am LONG

after 9:30: Short below 6275 or Reversal at 6282, Long above 6282 or Reversal at 6237 or on low risk entry signal before the breakout

• 9.42 am long
• 9.50 am SHORT
• 10.45 am short

Crude Oil Trades: In addition to entry times that happen on stock market indices I am looking forward to hold a position till 2.30 pm

• 2.30 am LONG
• 5.27 am LONG
• 8.46 am LONG
• 9.45 am LONG
• 11.00 am SHORT
• 12.30 pm LONG

29th September Wednesday

FDAX:

Strategy for trading on wednesday is to enter low risk trend trades after 3.05 am, 3.30 am, 4.30 am or 5.30 am, 8.15 am, 9.00 am and 10.00 am.

after 3.00 am: Prior day closed on a swing high, so looking for long continuation till we hit decision point area. Short below 6287 or Reversal at 6327, Long above 6300 or Reversal at 6288 Support or on low risk entry signal before the breakout

• 3.07 am LONG
• 3.29 am SHORT
• 4.06 am short
• 4.30 am short
• 5.34 am long
• 7.30 am long
• 8.19 am short

after 9.30 am: First a gap fill on the S&P and then most likely the moves from this morning, so first long then short with an upmove after 10.00 am. Short below 6261 or Reversal at 6286 Resistance, Long above 6277 or Reversal at 6246 Support or on low risk entry signal before the breakout

• 9.49 am SHORT
• 10.16 am SHORT
• 11.22 am long

Crude Oil Trades: In addition to entry times that happen on stock market indices I am looking for moves prior and after 10.30 am news so around 11.00 am and 1.30 pm

• 2.49 am long
• 3.30 am SHORT
• 9.00 am SHORT
• 9.47 am short
• 10.30 am LONG
• 11.00 am LONG

28th September Tuesday

FDAX:
Strategy for trading on tuesdays is to enter low risk trend trades after 2.45 am, 5.30 am, 7.15 am, 9.00 am, before and reversal after 10.00 am news event, 10.40 am. In addition to that most tuesdays start with the trend from monday evening so making a trade prior to the 3 am open is valid if the next target is further away, anyway I am prepared for a reversal trade after 3.15 am.

after 3 am: Prior day closed on a swing low, so looking for short continuation without a big retracement. Countertrend Long above 6294 or Reversal at Prior 6270 Support, Short below 6284 or on Reversal at Prior 6300 Resistance or low risk entry signal before the breakout

• 2.46 am SHORT
• 3.23 am short
• 5.21 am LONG
• 7.47 am LONG

after 9:30 am: First a gap fill on the S&P then the trend from this morning so most likely short and then long. Short below 6307, Long above 6308 or in Reversal around 6285 or 6230 or on low risk entry signal before the breakout

• 9.23 am SHORT
• 10.00 am short
• 10.22 am LONG

Crude Oil Trades: In addition to entry times that happen on stock market indices I am looking for moves after 8.30 am, 11.30 am and 1.50 pm

• 2.39 am SHORT
• 5.24 am long
• 9.02 am long
• 9.26 am SHORT
• 10.00 am short
• 10.16 am LONG
• 10.55 am long
• 1.52 pm short

27th September Monday

FDAX:

Strategy for trading on mondays is to enter low risk trend trades after 2.35 am, 4.15 am, 5.50 am, 8.30 am, 9.59 am and 10.45 am.

after 3 am: Prior Day Closed on a Swing High so only looking for shorts on a gap up. Long above 6334 or Reversal at Prior 6306 Support, Countertrend Short below 6328 or on Low Risk Entry Signal before the breakout

• 2:38 am short
• 4.40 am short
• 5.59 am short
• 8.22 am short

after 9:30 am: First a gap fill on the S&P then the trend from this morning most likely short.Long above 6317 or Reversal at 6304, Short below 6300 or on Low Risk Entry Signal before the breakout

• 9.28 am short
• 11.02 am short
• 2.58 pm short

Crude Oil: In addition to entry times that happen on stock market indices I am looking for moves after 9 am

• 4.42 am short
• 6.56 am long
• 9.41 am short
• 10.33 am long
• 11.00 am short
• 1.45 pm long

Trading Plan: Automating trendtrading

I did some backtesting to see if its actually possible to auto trade trends and figured out

there are at least 10 different reasons why it most of the time this method will not be as profitable as trading trend entries discretionary.

Entry Rule: Go Long above the Price that was last swing high. Works on 10 Min Charts when you define last swing high as point where the Close 3 Bars ago was smaller than 2 Bars ago and the last Bar was smaller than the the bar before (in other words a pyramid and for short entries a pyramid upside down)

Exit Rules: End of Day, Entry in other Direction, Dochian Channel Trailing Stop, Breakeven after 30 Bars

Filters to avoid trades with less potential:

• To avoid going long on gap ups , I let the strategy check if the current day open is less than 100 ticks above the 200 ema or on gap downs that the open is more than -100 ticks below the 200 ema (vice versa for shorts
• Avoid making multiple trades in one direction
• Entering only at key times (2.30 am till 2.30 pm, avoiding 7 till
• Avoid going short when already in a long position above prior day high

With these filters the strategy is quite profitable, however lets see if this strategy can survive in forward testing...

Review 4th Week of September

When comparing bonds, gold, S&P, fdax and crude oil i figured out its much more rewarding to just take the trades in the direction of the daily trend (no price below prior days low = no shorting, only if there is extreme overbought situation like 3 higher highs and a gap in the charts so a big potential for the short move to continue past last swing low)

All those special entry times for daytrading the dax future:

Monday: After 2.35 am, 4.15 am, 5.50 am, 8.30 am, 9.59 am and 10.45 am

Tuesday: After 2.50 am, 3.30 am, 5.30 am, 7.15 am, 8.00 am, 9.00 am, 9.45 am and 10.20 am

Wednesday: After 3.05 am, 3.30 am, 4.05 am, 4.30 am, 5.30 am, 8.15 am, 9.00 am and 10.00 am

Thursday: After 3.15 am, 4.00 am, 5.30 am, 6.20 am, 8.20 am, 9.45 am, 10.45 am and 2.30 pm

Friday: After 3.30 am, 4.30 am, 7.00 am, 8.30 am, 9.45 am and 10.30 am

are not as profitable as just making 1 trade after 3.00 am and one after 9.30 am (expection fridays there you have to enter after 7.00 am to catch the beginning of a trend on the 10 min chart)

besides that if the dax closed with a lower low around 3 pm chances are high we will also get a downtrend in the morning, if it closed higher we might first go up test the resistance and see if we can get an uptrend going but for a real nice uptrend price needs to be above where it was yesterday in the early US session (9.30 am till 11.30 am)

24th September Friday

FDAX:

Strategy for trading on fridays is to enter low risk trend trades after 3.30 am, 4.30 am, 5.10 or 7.00 am, 8.30 am, 9.45 am and 10.20 am.

after 3.00 am: Short below 6171 or Reversal at 6187, Long above 6200 or Reversal at 6158 or on Low Risk Entry Signal before the breakout

• 2.53 am long
• 4.00 am LONG
• 4.27 am SHORT
• 5.30 am SHORT
• 7.00 am LONG
• 8.00 am LONG (added to long)

after 9:30 am: Short below 6251 or on Reversal not likely directly after 9.30 as there was just a small pullback after 9 am, Long above 6264 or on Reversal at 6212/6200/6182 or on Low Risk Entry Signal before the breakout

• 9.30 am long
• 10.20 am LONG

Crude Oil Trades: In addition to entry times that happen on the stock market indices I am also looking for moves after 2.00 pm

• 3.24 am long
• 8.00 am LONG
• 10.04 am LONG
• 10.41 am long

Today was an interesting day as the 8.30 am news event was gave a strong up move then the usual pullback prior to the 9.30 am cash market open was weak followed by another up move, again pullback prior to 10.00 am news, so i really learned not to look for shorting opportunities and instead looked to add to my long position after 9.30 am and 10.20 am. Trading can be very easy once you learn to avoid making reversal trades, they are very bad since they give you instant profits, only a gambler looks for such things, constantly money is made by waiting for setups/confirmation and not by hoping a news event will push the prices to a level that the traders wants :-)

23th September Thursday

FDAX:
Strategy for trading on thursday is to enter low risk trend trades after 3.15 am, 5.30 am, 6.20 am (bearish), 8.20 am, 9.45 am and after 2.30 pm. Also expecting to catch some points from the 2.45 am move

after 3 am : Short below 6254 or Reversal at 6271, Long above 6277 or on low risk entry signal before the breakout

• 2.57 am long
• 3.15 am short
• 3.47 am SHORT
• 5.34 am LONG
• 6.50 am short
• 8.33 am short

after 9:30: Short below 6140 or Reversal at 6190, Long above 6157 or Reversal at 6146 or on low risk entry signal before the breakout

• 9.39 am long
• 10.00 am LONG
• 11.03 pm long
• 2.40 pm short

Crude Oil Trades: In addition to entry times that happen on stock market indices I am looking forward to hold a position from after 11.00 am till 2.30 pm (trailing stop on 10 min chart to catch in best case a runner till after 2.00 pm)

• 2.00 am long
• 3.21 am SHORT
• 7.06 am short
• 9.11 am long
• 10.30 am LONG
• 11.18 am LONG

22th September Wednesday

FDAX:

Strategy for trading on wednesday is to enter low risk trend trades after 3.05 am, 4.30 am or 5.40 am, 8.15 am, 9.00 am and 10.20 am.

after 3.00 am: Short below 6302, Long above 6314 or Reversal at 6288 Support or on low risk entry signal before the breakout

• 3.10 am SHORT
• 4.00 am SHORT
• 6.42 am SHORT
• 8.03 am LONG

after 9.30 am: Short below 6230 or Reversal at 6275 Resistance, Long above 6239 or on low risk entry signal before the breakout

• 9.34 am LONG
• 10.20 am SHORT
• 2.30 pm long

Crude Oil Trades: In addition to entry times that happen on stock market indices I am looking for moves prior and after 10.30 am news so around 11.10 am and 1.30 pm

• 2.15 am long
• 4.04 am short
• 5.00 am LONG
• 8.45 am LONG
• 10.21 am SHORT
• 11.08 am SHORT
• 1.27 pm long
• 2.06 pm long

21th September Tuesday

FDAX:
Strategy for trading on tuesdays is to enter low risk trend trades after 2.50 am, 5.30 am, 7.15 am, before 10.00 am and after 10.00 am if there is a news event at 10 am, or after 9.00 am and 10.40 am if there are no news at 10 am. In addition to that most tuesdays start with the trend from monday evening so making a trade prior to the 3 am open is valid is the next target is further away, anyway I am prepared for a reversal trade after 3.15 am.

after 3 am: Long above 6305 or Reversal at Prior 6290 Support, Countertrend Short below 6300 or on low risk entry signal before the breakout

• 2.48 am SHORT
• 3.23 am LONG
• 4.50 am long
• 5.30 am short
• 8.30 am LONG

after 9:30 am: Short below 6333, Long above 6340 or in Reversal in 6321 DP area or on low risk entry signal before the breakout

• 9.07 am SHORT
• 10.42 am SHORT
• 2.30 pm long (pullback entry after news spike)

Crude Oil Trades: In addition to entry times that happen on stock market indices I am looking for moves after 8.30 am, 10.45 am and 12.15 pm

• 2.47 am SHORT
• 3.39 am LONG
• 7.12 am LONG
• 8.30 am long
• 9.26 am SHORT
• 9.54 am short
• 10.55 am SHORT
• 2.45 am short

20th September Monday

FDAX:

Strategy for trading on mondays is to enter low risk trend trades after 2.35 am, 4.15 am, 5.50 am, 8.30 am, 9.59 am and 10.45 am and exit them when the trendline on the 3 min chart breaks or in Decision Point Areas.

after 3 am: Long above 6236 or Reversal at Prior 6223 Support, Countertrend Short below 6231 or on Low Risk Entry Signal before the breakout

• 3:06 am long
• 3.28 am long
• 4.19 am LONG
• 8.28 am SHORT

after 9:30 am: Long above 6245, Short below 6232 or on Low Risk Entry Signal before the breakout

• 10.02 am LONG
• 10.42 m long

Crude Oil: In addition to entry times that happen on stock market indices I am looking for moves after 9 am

• 3.42 am short
• 5.46 am long
• 7.20 am short
• 8.34 am short
• 9.14 am LONG
• 9.46 am long
• 10.47 am long

Trading Plan: When to trade trends, moves, just breakouts or dont trade at all & Pace of tape

Overall its wise to look for trends, entering them either on a pullback or directly on a higher high if the is clear trendline break (bull/bear flag) or when resistance is further away (a gap in the chart).

However the target of a counter trend move (against 200 ema) is not a trail stop but directly at the point where the last leg from the prior trend started.

Breakouts and Reversals happen at special situations (mainly news events)

so its wise to setup either stop sell/buy orders before the event or look for reversals in decision point areas after the event.

Looking at the EURUSD chart its important to check for prior support and resistance (breaks above/below the closing price of a 10 min bar), so the first trade might be a counter trend move (red) down to a trend entry on the bigger time frame, nevertheless an aggressive reversal entry would be to wait for a close above the bar that reached a prior support and then buy the high of the bar.

Dont trade at all, when prior support and resistance is very near (range trading) as the counter trend move will be very short so as you can see on the FGBL (Bund) Chart its very risky to make a short trend continuation trade as the first target is very near leaving almost no room to place a breakeven stop when prior support is reached. Better wait till the low of the choppy area has been broken and then enter on another pullback.

Best entry is done with a limit order but in case you dont get filled or the market does not retrace to a prior support and resistance level calculated from the closing price of prior 10 min bar, you can also enter with a stop market order around the level of the high (or low for short entries) price of prior 10 min bar that was resistance prior to the breakout (see 1 min FDAX chart.

Its very likely that a counter move will happen when the speed of the tape (see crude oil tick charts) increases. However exiting just because there are lots of trades happening is not clever, better be alert after such event happen and then exit with a ATR trailing stop.

Review 3rd Week of September

The entry times changed not much, still getting the most points after news events:

Monday: After 2.35 am, 3.50 am, 5.50 am, 9 am, 9.59 am and 10.45 am

Tuesday: After 2.50 am, 3.30 am, 5.30 am, 7.15 am, before and after 10.00 am

Wednesday: After 3.05 am, 4.30 am, 5.40 am, 9.00 am and 10.30 am

Thursday: After 3.15 am, 5.30 am, 8.20 am, 9.45 am and 2.30 pm

Friday: After 3.30 am, 4.30 am, 8.30 am, 9.45 am and 10.30 am

Trading Plan: Trading Trends with Pullback Entry