Saturday, September 18, 2010

Trading Plan: When to trade trends, moves, just breakouts or dont trade at all & Pace of tape






Overall its wise to look for trends, entering them either on a pullback or directly on a higher high if the is clear trendline break (bull/bear flag) or when resistance is further away (a gap in the chart).

However the target of a counter trend move (against 200 ema) is not a trail stop but directly at the point where the last leg from the prior trend started.

Breakouts and Reversals happen at special situations (mainly news events)
so its wise to setup either stop sell/buy orders before the event or look for reversals in decision point areas after the event.

Looking at the EURUSD chart its important to check for prior support and resistance (breaks above/below the closing price of a 10 min bar), so the first trade might be a counter trend move (red) down to a trend entry on the bigger time frame, nevertheless an aggressive reversal entry would be to wait for a close above the bar that reached a prior support and then buy the high of the bar.

Dont trade at all, when prior support and resistance is very near (range trading) as the counter trend move will be very short so as you can see on the FGBL (Bund) Chart its very risky to make a short trend continuation trade as the first target is very near leaving almost no room to place a breakeven stop when prior support is reached. Better wait till the low of the choppy area has been broken and then enter on another pullback.

Best entry is done with a limit order but in case you dont get filled or the market does not retrace to a prior support and resistance level calculated from the closing price of prior 10 min bar, you can also enter with a stop market order around the level of the high (or low for short entries) price of prior 10 min bar that was resistance prior to the breakout (see 1 min FDAX chart.



Its very likely that a counter move will happen when the speed of the tape (see crude oil tick charts) increases. However exiting just because there are lots of trades happening is not clever, better be alert after such event happen and then exit with a ATR trailing stop.





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