Saturday, July 7, 2012

Trading Plan: How to trade news events

Last friday was again the non farm payrolls news event, that I have been tracking for years

A good way to trade them is to actually be flat before the release
to avoid whipsaws like on the 9th of march:


As whipsaws happen because there are stoploss orders triggers and the smart money enters at decision point areas its always good to have those decision point areas drawn on the 10 min chart prior to the news event.

Then there are 4 types of news trades possible:

1. market is trending but has no reached the target yet, in that case (especially on gold) its possible to stay in a position with a stop. Sometimes the market at the end of a trend (no targets left) will reverse after a strong move, so be ready to exit the trade some minutes after the news release: 

on such trend trades the stop needs to stay at the last swing high/low as prior to the strong move many trades want to get a good entry price this results either in a sideways trading action or even an adverse move:
there can also be a setup on the 3 min chart 30 min prior to the news release in that case its also wise to exit with a limit order at the target when the volatility is high during the news event:




2. the market is not trending as it has already reached a target and the volatility is still very high so entering a breakout trade is too risky, in that case only entering after the news release migh be possible:

3. the market is moving sideways in a tight range so a breakout trade or a re-entry in the direction of the breakout is possible. Often times an AB correction can tell where the price sill go after the news release.



4. trend reversal on the news event usually happen if the next 10 min decision point level is not far away or at major levels (prior close, prior high/low) and then the price suddently moves to that level and reverse after 3 minutes usually a barrier is broken and you can simply enter the market on the break of a 3 min DP level in the new direction:


Every Thursday the Natural Gas news can be traded profitable with 10 Min Setups:






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