Sunday, October 14, 2012

Trading Plan: the 4 basic setups

new long trend
new short trend
long trend continuation
short trend continuation

preparation: is very important to draw in entry and exit areas (blue boxes projected above the swing highs and lows on a 30 min chart) when trading on the 3 min chart
otherwise all up and down moves look large.

also to get motivated its good to write down how much money can be earned when the price will reach the next target area.


short trend continuation with 50 points (1250 EUR) to next target area. 
 failed to make a new up trend (holiday in the US) but chance for 100 points
on a new up trend or a new short trend its important to use trendline breaks of the main trend line that connects the highest /lowest swing points not the minor swings inbetween:

a down trendline is clearly broken if there is a new higher high, so just a red or cyan box above a trendline does not mean a low risk entry sometimes its better to wait for a small pullback and then enter lower in speculation that the market will move higher:




 new short trend with 30 points to first and 60 to next target
 new uptrend with 60 points to last high but failed to reach the high so "only" 30 points
 new long trend after market failed to go through support area clear 50 points target
long trend continuation (often times it takes 2-3 attempts before another upmove starts)
but still 30 points left till last high.


example of a narrow range day (market waits to come into a support or resistance area, so often times only 1 trend continuation trade is possible) so either ignoring any entry signals or looking only for small gains is the key.
market moves away from a support area so a new long trend trade is made, but does not go any higher can lead to a chance for a short entry, but any trendline break will stop the short move and prices move up again
until there is another intraday short trend continuation setup:
whats really important is to keep on trading until the market moves into the desired direction as you can see from the following euro trade it can take hours before the market sets up for a new long trend and then in 3-10 minutes the main move is over

which market to trade? 

I would recommend the market that clearly bounced of the edge of a support or resistance area, or did trade through it, also taking the potential reward in account, the market on which the next target area is furthest away should be traded as the reward will be higher most of the time

to avoid frustration only setups with low risk should be taken, so if for any reason an entry was missed you need to wait for the next one.

when taking a trade its important to have the right expectations as there can be:
strong reversal (bounce at the edge of a decision area, when there are two cyan boxes)
normal reversal (for short trades: price closed above the decision area but traded back below the area
so usually a trendline break on 3 min chart is first required before taking the trade)
and weak reversal signals (market traded inside the decision area and then reversed)

I still have to complete my statistic which setup are more profitabel (reversals at decision areas only from prior day high or low or from prior days swing highs and lows, or the trend continuation trades that happen when prices rise above the high of the prior two days)


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