Friday, October 15, 2010

Review 3rd Week of October







I learned to ignore the volatile action in the crude oil market and that the best trades are after 10.30 am in the direction of the trend that started prior to US market open and holding one contract overnight.

The bond market was pretty bearish, but all major moves happend after 11.00 am so entering after 8.30 am is the key to avoid entering trades with less potential.

Also what was interesting that nasdaq was more bullish than the other indicies and that an entry in the direction of the trend from the morning after the sell off that happened after 9.30 am was possible. Only tuesday was too bullish so the low of the day was further away for a potential long position, but overall only 1 long trade after 9.45 am with a trail stop after 2.30 pm was needed to catch most of the points.

But overall dax, nasdaq and S&P trade the same so that seeing setups on any of the markets can be used for the others as well. Instead of waiting for a reversal setup on the 10 min chart i will do also aggressive entries (high high and higher low) on the 30 sec. chart on the dax when price is in key areas (prior entry points of 10 min setups or decision point areas).

Overall my dax trading pretty much was every day like this:
3.00 am breakout setup (2nd entry after 3.50 am)
after 5.30 am trend or countertrend setup
7.40 am - 8.30 am breakout setup
8.50 am - 9.30 am countertrend setup
after 9.45 am trend till at least 11.10 am

I also learned thats its better to trail a stop (30 sec chart on counter trend and breakout setups) and with donchian channel on 10 min chart for trend trades instead of exiting with limit orders at targets. Also I i will try to avoid breakeven stops and aim for at least decision points and/or camarilla targets to be hit.

Still the entry times remain the same but on some days it might be enough to make just 1 or 2 trades and ignore minor pullbacks so trading only the setups after 5.30 am if they are trend continuation entries:

Monday: After 2.35 am, 4.15 am, 5.50 am, 8.30 am, 10.00 am and 10.45 am
Tuesday: After 2.50 am, 3.30 am, 5.30 am, 7.15 am, 8.00 am, 9.00 am, 9.45 am, 10.20 am
Wednesday: After 3.05 am, 3.30 am, 4.05 am, 4.30 am, 5.30 am, 8.15 am, 9.00 am, 10.00 am
Thursday: After 3.15 am, 4.00 am, 5.30 am, 7.15 am, 8.30 am, 9.30 am, 10.30 am
Friday: After 3.30 am, 4.30 am, 6.45 am, 8.15 am, 9.30 am, 10.30 am

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