Thursday, April 8, 2010

08th April Thursday




FDAX Trades: expecting a trend to start between 3.00 and 4.00 am,10.03 am, 11.30 and after 1.30 pm

after 2.45 am open: quick down move, up move, double top then short

  • 3.00 am long
  • 3.30 am short
  • 4.00 am long
  • 4.09 am short
  • 4.35 am long
  • 5.02 am short
  • 6.12 am long
  • 6.45 am long
  • 7.05 am short
  • 8.00 am long
  • 8.12 am short
  • 8:31 am long
after 9:30 am: up move 14 points, downtrend
  • 9.35 am short
  • 9.43 am long
  • 10.02 am short
  • 10.10 am long
  • 10.55 am long
  • 11.15 am short
  • 11.35 am long
  • 12.15 am long
  • 1.30 pm long
  • 2.40 pm long
  • 3.30 pm long
Crude Oil Trades:
  • 3 am long
  • 3.13 am short
  • 4.00 am long
  • 4.50 am long
  • 6.20 am short
  • 7.45 am long
  • 9.10 am short
  • 9.44 am long
  • 10.10 am long
  • 11.07 am short
  • 11.42 am long
  • 1 pm long
  • 1.45 pm short
  • 2.15 pm long
  • 2.45 pm short
Profit 5 Points Automatic Reversal System ES
Profit 40 Points MTP Manual DP System FDAX
Profit 100 Points MTP Manual DP System CL

20 comments:

  1. Hm.. you're looking to buy DAX? I may be wrong, but at this point it rather looks short to me. A slightly lower open AND 50 ema is below 200 ema would kind of confirm.

    It is on a up trending line right now, so 6194/6191.50 is the level to watch. If that fails, then more down side may occur.

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  2. the dax usually does at 2.45 what it did 11.00 am on the previous day, so just a small up move

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  3. Now that makes more sense. At first you wrote something like ''up move, sideways, up-trend''. :-)

    Since Dax didn't went to test the 6194/6191.50 level, I'm looking to see if there's a shorting possibility at 6227 and/or if Dax hits the 200 ema.

    Cheers mate!

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  4. 200 ema on 3 minute charts i guess, but right now it looks like we break below 6200 so i will go with the short trend

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  5. Boy was I lucky or what. I went short earlier at 6204 and that up-move was 2 points away from my stop, but then it turned around. I was already ready for a small loss. :-)))

    As I said earlier, the 6191.50 level somewhat significant, so let's see if it can stay below it.

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  6. good entry, i only got filled at 6199

    on the s&p i have as down side target 1172 but how far the dax will go down
    i have no clue, so using a trendline
    trailing stop

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  7. Nice dude! We're a lethal combination here. :-)))

    I am not sure about how low the Dax can go either. I have a few support levels on my chart, so if any one of those fails, I'm out (better safe then sorry), or again... if a danger signal occurs.

    If a selloff comes, then I'm out at latest @ 6116. Don't see it go any lower than that.

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  8. 6110 that would be a 100 points move down, 6170 is also a good level (40 points move = 1000 EUR)

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  9. Yup... but I won't expect a 100 point move unless there will be a panic selloff. Remember - ATR used to be above 100 points for Dax on normal days not very few months ago. So during the selloff we might see it now too.

    Just got a minor buy signal from 6170.50. Let's see how the market acts. If it shows signs that the downtrend will continue, then it might just go up a bit and form a channel.

    Let's see.

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  10. Took my profits at 6158. More downside may come, but better safe than sorry. Can always re-enter at higher levels if I see more down moves.

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  11. well done, i also took my 40 points and focus now on trading crude oil.
    let me know when you see another shorting opportunity maybe at 8.30-9.00 am or 10-11 am or after 1 pm

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  12. Will do. I've noticed that quite often there's a small selloff between 7-9am. Will see if there is one today also.

    For now it looks like we might be going up in a slow pace. Can't really predict price levels yet, because it depends on how quickly we move up. So it could turn out to be a tight down channel (high of 6170), a bit wider (high of ~6178) or the widest (high of 6191).

    Will take a 45 min walk on the beach, so I'll be following the markets via iPhone.

    Good luck!

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  13. I noticed on the dax move up volume was not increasing, so more shorting or sideways is likely.
    crude oil is more dynamic it usually retraces more, thats why I focus my attention at countertrend trades more on this market

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  14. True, but I'm standing by at this point. Not sure which way the Dax will swing it. I will look for confirmation that the down move will continue. Maybe it will happen around 6191.50, maybe earlier.

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  15. you have to agree crude oil and gold is far more easier to trade than the dax, much more trends and good breakouts

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  16. Could be - I haven't traded crude oil and gold for some time now. I'm trading DAX exclusively (even though I also do a few S&P trades once in a while).

    I used to have a good strategy for oil, but haven't followed it that close for over 10 months now. Maybe I should....

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  17. just letting you know that a trendline break strategy and the timing method (same as last weekday) works great on those markets

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  18. Great! :-)

    Paying close attention to Dax behavior. It just might happen that there is no downside for today. Let's see how this hour closes and how the price acts. Maybe there's a long at 6148.00

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  19. at what time do you stop trading the dax? i am asking because on thursdays usually the big move only happens after 11.30

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  20. You know I stop trading whenever I am too tired or just feel like it's enough for the day. Went long again yesterday at 6148, but closed at 6191.50. A bit too early, but still. Had a very nice day and I'm happy. :-)

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